VUCA, BANI or FUBAR: the Future(s) of the US Political Econony

I have been told, with great authority, that the world of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) is so over, replaced by BANI (brittle, anxious, nonlinear and incomprehensible). Actually, I think the current outlook is probably best described as FUBAR (I'll let you look than one up!).

A more thoughtful view of the medium-term future(s) has just been published by my long-term friend and collaborator, Professor Steve Weber, Partner at Breakwater Strategy (and Network Partner at Stratforma). Steve lays out four potential futures, to the Autumn (Fall) of 2026, for the US political economy, using a framework built around the critical uncertainties of:

1. "US economic growth" (how does the macroeconomy play out under the Trump administration’s policy regime)

2. "Countervailing forces" (how do media and political influence institutions evolve to try to advance or oppose the MAGA agenda?)

I urge you to read Steve's report. Think through what these different worlds could mean to you, your organisation, your markets, your stakeholders etc.

In his final conclusions, Steve notes: "What feels like a moment of profound disruption in American political economy could soften into a more moderate, evolutionary period of change. But across the four scenarios, it appears more likely that the present moment will amplify into what will accurately be seen from the not-so-distant future as a revolutionary period of change.