Journalist and author Tim Harford hits many of the nails on the head in his insightful article “How to fix the UK? Let me count the ways” (FT Weekend Magazine, June 28th, 2024) however, I believe he misses one important factor, the UK’s long-term sickness crisis. According to the ONS / Statista, pre-COVID, the number of people not working due to long-term sickness was gradually falling, down to 1.97 million. Since then, however, the number has skyrocketed to 2.83 million. This level of inactivity has to some extent being masked by a corresponding fall in the official unemployment rate, (notwithstanding the small increase in the latest figures).
The reasons given for this dramatic increase in long-term economic inactivity vary. Claims related to long COVID are high, at around 1.8 million but one of the most common conditions quoted is mental health. In 2022 over 310,000 suffered from mental illness and a further 280,000 were claiming for depression related illness.
Perhaps most worryingly, the long-term sick are no longer just the old. Between 2019 and 2022 the number of those aged between 16 and 34 on long-term sickness increased by 140,000, compared with just 32,000 for those aged between 35 and 49. So as Tim articulates, the young are not only struggling to find suitable education, they are also simply not fit for work if and when they do. The economic drag on the country is huge. The personal impact on the claimants is at best dispiriting at a worst catastrophic.
I know from my own experience in supporting London’s welfare-to-work sector that in many cases the best solution to long-term sickness and inactivity is meaningful work. This is particular true for those with depression. Relevant, skills-based education is a starting point but the provision of accessible pathways back to work, with the prerequisite support and training, is essential if the UK is to solve our “productivity pandemic”.
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